Kim Jong Un has broken with decades of North Korean policy – does it mean he’s planning for war?

As war in Ukraine grinds toward its third year and fighting in Gaza inflames a broader crisis across the Middle East, global security observers are keeping a close watch on another part of the world – North Korea, where Kim Jong Un’s latest provocations are raising questions about his military intentions.

In recent weeks, the leader has brushed aside decades of his country’s policy toward South Korea – now proclaiming that North Korea would no longer seek reconciliationand reunification with the South and calling for it to be classified as their “permanent enemy.”

North Korea “does not want war, but will not avoid it,” Kim declared at a political gathering last month, according to state outlet KCNA.

If war came, the country’s goal would be “occupying, suppressing and reclaiming the Republic of Korea and subjugating it into the territory of the republic,” he said, referring to South Korea by its official name.

The sweeping policy shift in the nuclear-capable country has come alongside a volley of weapons tests, the shelling of a maritime buffer zone, and calls from Kim for North Korea to accelerate war preparations in response to “confrontation moves” by the US.

Together the developments are drawing international concern – and debate among seasoned observers – about the intentions of the leader at the heart of the country’s secretive regime.

“We do not know when or how Kim plans to pull the trigger, but the danger is already far beyond the routine warnings in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo about Pyongyang’s ‘provocations,’” prominent experts Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker wrote in North Korea-focused publication 38 North last month. Kim, they suggest, has “made a strategic decision to go to war.”

Many other observers disagree – arguing that the 40-year-old leader knows well that any major military move against South Korea and its ally the United States could hasten the demise of his own regime.

But those observers too are bracing for a year of ramped up aggression – and express concern about the risk of North Korea’s escalated hostilities leading to some kind of military engagement on the Korean Peninsula, raising the risk, however remote, of nuclear conflict.

“The situation on the Korean Peninsula has entered a very critical phase,” said Eul-Chul Lim, director of the North Korea Research Center at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES) in Seoul.

“Given the high level of mutual tension, there is a possibility of accidental conflict due to misunderstandings, misjudgments, and misperceptions” – even if Kim likely sees “little political or economic benefit” in war, he added.

Kim is known for his provocations and has signaled in recent years a coming policy shift on South Korea.

But experts say the changes now are likely driven by Kim’s mounting concerns as South Korea and the United States ramp up military drills and coordination – and his newfound confidence in a shifting geopolitical climate that has drawn Pyongyang closer to a key partner, Russia.

The changes also coincide with an election year in the US, where President Joe Biden seeks a second term while managing multiple global crises. Kim is likely watching carefully – and may be keen to see him replaced by predecessor and candidate Donald Trump.