Biden risks deepening Middle East conflict with pressure to respond to deadly troop attack

The deaths of three American troops in a drone attack Sunday has thrust the United States deeper into the Middle East conflict and lent fresh urgency to efforts at securing the release of hostages in Gaza in exchange for a prolonged halt in the fighting between Israel and Hamas.

The confluence of intertwined events — high-stakes hostage talks in France were underway at the same time American officials were grappling with the troop deaths in Jordan — added up to one of the most charged moments since the outbreak of violence following Hamas’ October 7 terror attacks.

Now, leaders in Washington and the Middle East are mulling choices that could significantly transform the situation, with thousands of lives and the future of the region in the balance.

President Joe Biden, who vowed to respond to the drone attacks “at a time and in a manner of our choosing,” faces a decision on the scale of the American reprisal, which will have consequences both in the region and at home as he enters a tough reelection fight.

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under intense pressure to strike an agreement that would secure the return of more than 100 remaining hostages inside Gaza, a step that will require a lengthy pause in Israel’s campaign against Hamas.

And in Tehran, leaders must determine whether a strategy of sowing instability in the region through proxy groups is bringing them closer to direct combat with the United States — a step American officials say Iran doesn’t want and which the country has gone to some lengths to avoid.

How each party proceeds in the coming days could significantly alter the trajectory of the Israel-Hamas war and the broader tensions it has sparked in the Middle East. The issues have been the subject of hours of intense Situation Room discussions and high-level talks between the leaders.

“This is a dangerous escalation. We’ve been trying to make sure this conflict doesn’t escalate. This pushes it much closer to that point,” Rep. Adam Smith of Washington state, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, said of the drone strikes in Jordan, which left more than 30 American service members injured in addition to the fatalities. “It’s imperative the US respond and find a way to stop these attacks, and I know the president’s working on that.”

Smith said the prospects of a widening war could not be separated from the situation in Gaza, where Israel’s military campaign has killed more than 26,000 people, according to the health ministry there, and triggered the rise in violence across the region.

“What happens in Gaza is crucial,” said Smith. “The conflict in Gaza is empowering Iran right now. And that is bad for us, bad for Israel, bad for the Arab states, bad for the world. So finding a resolution to that is a crucial part of this challenge as well.”

Speaking in the banquet hall of a Baptist church in South Carolina hours after the attacks, Biden left little question to his broad intentions: “We shall respond,” he said after asking for a moment of silence for the US troops killed.

Yet what that response looks like is still being determined. There has been an imperative inside the White House to prevent the conflict from spreading — and a strong aversion to becoming directly involved in a regional war against Iran.

Already, Biden was coming under pressure to ratchet up the scale of American counterattack. Republicans on Sunday swiftly made calls for Biden to strike targets inside Iran, which the US has accused of being behind the proxy groups attacking American troops in Iraq and Syria.

Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina urged the administration “to strike targets of significance inside Iran, not only as reprisal for the killing of our forces, but as deterrence against future aggression. The only thing the Iranian regime understands is force.”